Phần sụp đổ KT th́ sẽ xảy ra, chỉ là phần có "lật đổ" CP hay không th́ khó nói.
[QUOTE=Balloon;71281]Tôi hy vọng Dr Tran lại đoán đúng. Thà đau một lần rồi khỏe mạnh c̣n hơn măi nhức nhối.[/QUOTE]
[B][COLOR="blue"]Phần sụp đổ KT th́ sẽ xảy ra, chỉ là phần có "lật đổ" CP hay không th́ khó nói.[/COLOR][/B]
[B][COLOR="red"]Hôm nay S&P cũng lên tiếng rồi, họ ĐÁNH SỤT TÍN DỤNG QUỐC GIA VN. [/COLOR][/B]
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/19/sp-idUSWLA392220110819[/url]
[I]"TEXT-S&P lowers Vietnam LC rating to 'BB-'
[B]-- Consequently, we are lowering the local currency long-term rating on Vietnam to 'BB-' from 'BB'. [/B]
-- The negative outlook on the ratings reflects our view that [B][COLOR="red"]Vietnam faces risks of near-term economic and financial instability. [/COLOR][/B]
[B][COLOR="blue"]Standard & Poor's also revised its transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment for Vietnam to 'BB-' from 'BB' and affirmed its recovery rating at '3'. [/COLOR][/B]
[B][COLOR="blue"]The macroeconomic volatility of recent years, amid strong lending growth, has weakened the banking sector's resilience to a new financial or economic shock[/COLOR][/B]. [B][COLOR="red"]The outflows of resident capital [B][COLOR="red"][[SIZE="5"][COLOR="blue"][U]hay thật, họ BIẾT quan chức, nhà giàu TẨU TÁN TÀI SẢN RA KHỎI VN[/U][/COLOR][/SIZE]] [/COLOR][/B]have reduced domestic liquidity and raised the cost of domestic funding. [/COLOR][/B]
"A large part of domestic credit--estimated to equal 118% of GDP at the end of 2011--are priced at nominal interest rates above 15% per annum," Mr. Tan said.
"A disinflationary environment could impair borrowers' ability to service these loans, which we expect to reprice slowly, and thus could hurt asset quality in the banking system. That may eventually require government recapitalization of key public sector financial institutions."
[B][COLOR="blue"]The negative outlook on the ratings reflects our view that Vietnam faces risks of near-term economic and financial instability. [/COLOR][/B]
[B][COLOR="red"]We could lower the sovereign credit ratings if balance-of-payment pressures mount or fiscal contingent risks from the financial sector rise[/COLOR][/B]..."[/I]