So sánh thực lực quân sự Việt Nam - Tàu
[COLOR="#000080"]Báo [B]The New York Times[/B] cuối tuần có một bài phỏng vấn về thực lực quân sự của Việt Nam và Tàu. Chuyên gia Lyle Goldstein nhận xét Tàu nể trọng khả năng chiến đấu của không quân hơn là lực lượng thuyền bè của Việt Nam.
Bài hơi dài thành tôi chuyển tải lại 2 câu trả lời sát với chủ đề của thớt này.
1) Ai thắng nếu xẩy ra một cuộc đụng độ giữa hai quân đội ?
2) Hoa Kỳ có nên bán vũ khí cho Việt Nam ?[/COLOR]
[SIZE=5][B]Q. and A.: Lyle Goldstein on China and the Vietnamese Military[/B][/SIZE]
[B]Q.[/B] :[I]If there was a military conflict between China and Vietnam today, who would prevail? [/I]
[B]A.[/B] : China would likely prevail in almost any conceivable scenario. Vietnam has made some wise investments as described above and could almost certainly inflict losses against the Chinese Navy and Air Force. Yet China has been engaged in a process of intense military modernization now for two decades and is reaping the dividends. In preparing for various conflict scenarios that potentially involve the United States and/or Japan, China has built forces that are well equipped and highly trained. In the critical areas of submarines, surface combatants and fast attack craft, China also may count on a very considerable numerical advantage that would likely allow China to prevail despite taking losses.
To be sure, there are some dimensions of a military contest that could play in Hanoi’s favor. For example, China is not particularly strong in the domain of aerial refueling, so that Vietnam could potentially contest for air superiority, particularly in the areas of the South China Sea more distant from Chinese airfields. In a desperate situation, moreover, Hanoi may even consider escalating a clash at sea into a larger land border conflict, since its land forces might be more equally matched against Chinese land forces. However, this would be a risky gambit, particularly since Hanoi is relatively close to the Chinese border. Moreover, China also has certain capabilities it could employ to escalate. For example, China could make crippling air and missile strikes against Vietnamese naval and air bases.
In general, it should be said that forecasting military outcomes is notoriously difficult and the world has not witnessed a genuine modern naval war since the 1982 conflict in the Falklands. Therefore, the above short analysis needs to be treated with due caution.
[B]Q.:[/B][I]The next ambassador to Vietnam, Ted Osius, is awaiting confirmation in the Senate. He said at his hearing that now may be the time for the U.S. to lift the arms embargo. Is the “may be” very polite, and in fact is the Pentagon ready to sell to Vietnam? What do you think the U.S. should sell to Vietnam, if the embargo is lifted?[/I]
[B]A.:[/B] In my opinion, the U.S. should be cautious about selling weapons to Vietnam. While such sales could have some minor and symbolic deterrent value, such benefits could quite easily be outweighed by the potential to further escalate tensions between China and Vietnam. In the same way that Americans would react extremely negatively to Chinese arms sales in Latin America, for example to Cuba or Venezuela, so these sales would be understood in Beijing as part of an attempt by Washington to further “contain China.” As such, they would not only likely further inflame Vietnam-China tensions, but could be quite detrimental to U.S.-China relations, which are already rather strained.
Whereas with alliance partners, such as Japan or the Philippines, the U.S. has long-running defense agreements that have involved arms purchases and joint training exercises that go back over decades, such relationships with Vietnam would be starting from scratch. It is possible that certain platforms, such as maritime surveillance, could potentially be quite useful to the Vietnam armed forces. However, Hanoi would then face the difficult challenge of trying to integrate American systems together with the already substantial arsenal that it has purchased from Russia. That could present a major technical challenge.
[url]http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/05/q-and-a-lyle-goldstein-on-china-and-the-vietnamese-military/?_php=true&_type=blogs&emc=edit_tnt_20140705&nlid=15975&tntemail0=y&_r=0[/url]