Tin xấu báo về dồn dập:Originally Posted by ThayBoiNgao
Marketwatch:
- Nasdaq Composite slides 5.3% for week;
- S&P 500 loses 6.6% for week;
- Dow has worst week since Oct. 2008, off 6.4%;
- Gold has worst day in 5 years; silver drops 18%;
- Silver drops 18%, worst in decades; platinum sinks;
etc., etc., etc...
Quả là có kế hoạch, hay nói đúng hơn là ÂM MƯU, đánh sập giá vàng, vào lúc này th́ không lư do ǵ nâng margin vàng, silver, copper thế này:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme...per-2011-09-23
Nếu vàng lên 1900+ mà nâng margin th́ c̣n chút lư lẽ, nhưng vàng xuống 160 USD kể từ thứ 5 mà lại nâng margin, lạ thật.
Tôi cũng hay vào xem các blog của nhóm, nhiều bài viết rất hay và bổ ích. Tuy nhiên, từ 1 tuần qua, do có nhiều biến động ngoài sức tưởng tượng nên một số bài dự báo có sai lệch, khiến cho 1 số độc giả ( không phải tôi) phàn nàn, kêu ca...
Bản chất là do mọi người đọc blog ddkt hiện nay hơi bị sốc v́ họ không hiểu rơ các nguyên do làm dự báo bị sai số nhiều trong tuần qua, nên tôi xin có ư kiến cá nhân đóng góp như thế này:
- Các bạn làm 1 bài viết thông báo, nêu nhận xét về t́nh h́nh dự báo và kết quả thực tế . số liệu cụ thể.
- Đánh giá, chỉ rơ là tại sao bị sai lệch: do FED ko tung tiền, bị sức ép chính trị, Châu Âu quá tồi tệ, căi nhau chí choé, 1 loạt bank bị hạ tín dụng ...nên làm thị trường biến động cực lớn volatility dao động quá mạnh...
Nguyên do khác là các số liệu có được để dự báo toàn là từ báo chí nước ngoài, các thông tin này chưa hẳn 100% là sớm nhất, bị trễ 1 khoảng time nhất định, nên dẫn đến sai số
- Có sự can thiệp quá mạnh của cấp chính phủ về giá vàng, các thông tin margin, bạn liệt kê mấy thông tin, ngày giờ ... cái này th́ chỉ có Chúa mới biết được, không ai dụ báo được !!!
- Sự thua lỗ quá lớn từ các quỹ nên họ phải bán vàng để bù đắp ( có đồ thị, thông số th́ quá tốt)
Bạn làm thông báo đó, gửi rộng răi ra là mọi người sẽ thoải mái lại ngay.
Nhóm ddkt cũng nên dùng dự báo với xác suất khoảng 68%, 95%,99%, tránh dùng các từ khẳng định, ḿnh luôn phải dành 1 xác suất sai số, an toàn cho bài dự báo.
Trên đây là đôi lời đóng góp của tôi, cũng chỉ mong các bạn có nhiều độc giả
That may be a good idea, because many readers know very little about economics, finance, while I tend to leave out many details in my posts here.
Plus, many readers such as CXN have a clear problem with reading comprehension.
And many such as the above are just very toxic, ill-intended.
Ddkt will have to work very hard to fill in the blanks.
I can't explain all, can't repeat after myself each and every time that things could change quickly at any times, such as a negative comment by an ECB council member (Klaas Knot) this morning and Moody's downrating 8 Greek banks right after that immediately caused Greece's stocks to crash after having stabilized somewhat.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7JT01J20110923
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...370486936.html
Gold was at 1750 when those things happened. Without those 2 events, gold may be at 1800 now.
But those things did happen, and they caused European stocks falling, pulling gold price with it, down to 1640.
Then CME raised gold margin by 21% after trading hours, probably will make gold pice plunging even more on Monday.
So, earlier today, who on earth could have predicted all those 3 events, among a dozen other big news that caused gold price to crash?
I always said, I DO NOT give short-term trading advice, and my long-term advice on buying USD and gold in VN is ONLY for those who want to keep their money safe, NOT for making money.
I thought I already made myself abundantly clear, straightforward, as such. But maybe I overestimated people's reading comprehension skills, especially the likes of CXN who should never have ventured into my topics and stole my ideas, comments, for over 2 years now without shame.
Quân đội VN mà "anh hùng" kiểu này đánh TQ lấy lại Trường Sa, Hoàng Sa, th́ cũng đỡ:
http://vnexpress.net/gl/xa-hoi/2011/...ng-tao-cua-vn/
http://vnexpress.net/gl/xa-hoi/2011/...inh-tren-bien/
Some of you may not have WSJ, so I post the entire article here:
Moody's Downgrades 8 Greek Banks
SEPTEMBER 23, 2011, 4:47 A.M. ET
By ART PATNAUDE
LONDON—Moody's Investors Service Inc. downgraded eight Greek banks by two notches Friday, citing expected losses due to their holdings of Greek government bonds, increasing concerns about the impact of a recession as well as fragile liquidity and funding positions.
"The government faces significant solvency challenges and historical experience shows that small sovereign debt restructurings have often been followed by larger sovereign defaults," Moody's warned.
National Bank of Greece SA, EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA, Alpha Bank AE, Piraeus Bank SA, Agricultural Bank of Greece and Attica Bank SA were downgraded by Moody's to Caa2 from B3. Emporiki Bank of Greece and General Bank of Greece were downgraded to B3 from B1. All of the banks' debt ratings carry a negative outlook.
Moody's said private creditors may incur substantial economic losses on their Greek government bond holdings beyond the terms of the current debt exchange, especially if there are "any possible unfavorable developments regarding the implementation of the €109 billion ($146.75 billion) second support package" from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The ratings company said the Greek banks' direct holdings of the country's government debt puts their capital levels at risk of "material reductions" given their intention to participate in the planned debt exchange.
All major Greek banks have announced they will participate in a Greek government bond swap program that will lead to steep losses in their holdings of government bonds. In announcing their earnings late last month, the banks, led by market leader National Bank of Greece, took a combined loss of roughly €5 billion on those holdings, chalking up massive second-quarter losses.
"All rated Greek banks reported significant losses in the first half of the year, which further strains their overall financial position," Moody's said.
In addition to pressure on banks' solvency, the deteriorating economic outlook is adding to their struggle with rising nonperforming loans, which, as Greece's economy heads for a fourth year of recession, are expected to reach at least 12% of overall bank loans next year, and very probably will be higher than that.
"With a deeper-than-expected recession now forecast ... Moody's expects operating conditions to continue to exert significant pressure on banks' profitability and asset-quality metrics," the report said. Moody's also noted "increasingly fragile" liquidity and funding positions as well as the system's declining deposit bases. "Moody's believes that further adverse developments at the sovereign level could lead to a rapid acceleration of deposit outflows," it said.
The downgrade moves the banks further into junk territory at a time when the country's government is under pressure to come up with more than €6 billion in additional budget cuts over the next two years to secure the release of the country's next bailout payment, even as worries mount that further austerity measures could ignite more popular protests and political instability.
The Greek government this week decided to slash pensions, tax low-income earners and place thousands of public workers in a special labor reserve this year as the country scrambles to meet fresh austerity demands from its international creditors in exchange for aid.
At stake is an €8 billion aid tranche that Greece must receive in the next few weeks or the government will run out of money by the middle of October.
Since the start of Greece's economic crisis in early 2010, Greek banks have been hit by a liquidity squeeze and rising bad loans as the country stumbles through its third year of recession, which has forced the banks to set aside billions of euros in provisions.
Earlier this year, Greece's central bank commissioned consulting firm BlackRock Solutions to conduct an outside review of the banks' provisioning policy to see whether they have set aside enough for bad loans. The results of that review are expected by December and may force the banks to set aside even more money and, consequently, raise fresh capital.
—Alkman Granitsas in Athens contributed to this article
-------------------------
Look at the timing, the article was posted at 4:47 AM EST.
At and before that time, gold was at around 1750:
If not because of this terrible timing, gold would not have plunged that much, because the whole world was on edge about a global recession, then Moody's threw oil into the fire.
Now, if anyone would look at the curve again, at the blue and red lines. After the FOMC's annoucement, the blue line actually went UP for a while, before it started to come down, but not too much. It was NOT a crash on Wednesday. Anyone who wanted to sell, had plenty of time to do so on Wednesday, or even on Thursday.
These days, gold could go up or down $50 without a reason.
It's only AFTER today's downgrading of Greece's banks, that gold started to crash, more so than AUD, EUR.
Two days ago, nobody could have predicted that Moody's would do such a thing, right at a very critical moment.
Another good article explaining why gold crashed. Some of you may not have subscription to the NY Times, so let me post the entire article here:
A Gold Rush Wanes as Hedge Funds Sell
By JULIE CRESWELL
Published: September 22, 2011
Is the smart money fleeing gold?
For the better part of the last two years, some of the world’s biggest hedge funds have been piling into gold, betting the precious metal would provide an effective hedge against inflation or be a safer place to park cash as equity markets around the world stumbled.
But to the surprise of many investors, when equity markets across the globe tumbled once again on Thursday, gold moved sharply lower as well.
Gold futures for September delivery fell $66.30, or 3.7 percent, to $1,739.20 an ounce in New York. It was quite a turnabout for the metal, which has been soaring in recent months amid the turbulent stock markets.
Hedge funds, which have been ratcheting down their positions in gold futures since early August, were quickly named as the culprits in the latest sell-off.
Some traders said that hedge funds were beginning to unwind, or close out, what has been a very popular and profitable trade for the last 18 months as they bet the dollar would fall and that gold would rise. In the last month alone, the euro has fallen nearly 4 percent against the dollar amid worries about the European debt crisis.
The sell-off in gold was part of a broader move in the markets that had investors shifting away from perceived riskier assets, like commodities, and into the dollar in reaction to the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Wednesday of its new stimulus program.
In addition, the Fed said that there were “significant downside risks” to the United States economy, which sent several commodities, including crude oil and copper, tumbling on Thursday on fears of a global slowdown in demand.
Other market participants said hedge funds were selling their positions in gold to raise cash to meet increased capital demands for their borrowings from Wall Street banks as the assets they have put up as collateral, like other commodities or stocks, have declined sharply in value.
“On the one hand you have a lot of strength in the U.S. dollar, historically gold and the dollar do trade inversely,” said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “The hedge funds are long gold and they need to raise cash and it looks like they are definitely selling some gold.”
Others say some hedge funds may be selling to meet redemption requests from investors who have been spooked by the recent market volatility and fear a repeat of the problems of late 2008.
“A lot of investors are waking up to the realization that something is off. We’ve seen Goldman Sachs close its flagship fund, legendary hedge funds are down sharply, and I suspect we’re going to see significant withdrawals from some hedge funds this year,” said Michael A. Gayed, the chief investment strategist of the investment advisory firm Pension Partners.
“The tendency for individual hedge funds or anybody is to sell winners before they sell losers. What’s been one of the few winners this year? It’s been gold,” Mr. Gayed added.
Still, some are not yet ready to call the end of the gold rush. Even with the pullback, gold remains one of the most profitable investments this year with a gain of 22 percent.
Some strategists have even predicted that gold will reach a record of above $2,300, which it hit during the early 1980s when adjusted for inflation and translated into current dollars. Likewise, the world’s largest exchange-traded gold fund, the SPDR Gold Shares, fell 2.6 percent on Thursday, but remains up 22 percent for the year.
Gold, whether through futures contracts or via exchange-traded funds, has been a popular investment among some of the world’s largest hedge funds. One of the best known “gold bugs” is John A. Paulson, whose firm, Paulson & Company, is the biggest shareholder in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF. But many other hedge funds have embraced the metal as well.
After peaking in early August, hedge funds have been reducing their exposure in the gold futures market, according to Mary Ann Bartels, the head of United States technical analysis for Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“A lot of speculators were very long in July,” Ms. Bartels said. “But they’ve been taking it down ever since.”
http://cafef.vn/20110924085427459CA3...-dongluong.chn
Giá vàng trong nước cao hơn tg tới 4 tr/lượng con số kỷ lục. Không hiểu bọn chúng đang có âm mưu ǵ mà để giá chênh lệch khủng vậy.
They bought gold when it was 1850.
Báo nhà nước nói phét lấy được thôi, các bạn xem bài của Phan Lạc Tiếp về vấn đề này ở đây:
http://www.vietnamnavy.com/haiSu1.html
http://www.vietnamnavy.com/haisu.html
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