Dự kiến hôm nay sẽ vào lại BPAX, khoảng 30K, giá dưới 0.5. Hy vọng TP 0.6
Dự kiến hôm nay sẽ vào lại BPAX, khoảng 30K, giá dưới 0.5. Hy vọng TP 0.6
Đă long 30K BPAX giá trung b́nh 0.49. Sẽ ngâm 1-2 tuầnOriginally Posted by kaka
Last edited by kaka; 09-01-2012 at 08:50 PM.
Long thêm 20K EK tại 0.4, du kiến TP 0.5. Loại stock này chỉ hold nhiều là 2 ngày thôi. Giá 0.4 này th́ khả năng lỗ rất ít
Kaka thấy như vậy th́ rút ra được bài học ǵ ở đây. Nếu biết coi Level II và reading chart th́ có thể đón gió được rồi.
Giao dịch nội gián INHX: Thứ 6 vừa rồi một lệnh đặt mua khoảng 530K giá trung b́nh $10. Cuối tuần ra tin Bristol-Myers Squibb sẽ mua lại INHX. Hôm nay giá pre-market là $24. Như vậy giao dịch trên lời gần 8 triệu USD
DN lại nói ngược đời rồi. Smart Money chỉ hành động khi market lắng đọng chứ không phải lúc dao động mạnh. Đó là những lúc tạo thành những patterns trên chart. Những lúc dao động mạnh là do những con mồi sắp sửa đi vào ḷ sát sinh. Với EURUSD th́ tiền sắp chạy vào account của Phoenix trong đó có 1 phần tiền của Cậu.
Như thế nào mới là FA. Lượm lặc một vài con số trên các websites th́ đă cho là biết FA. Nói cho các Newbies biết đây là những anh chàng ếch ngồi đáy giếng nhưng lại thích khoát loát, hướng dẩn người khác một cách sai lệch rất là tai hại. Đây là những anh chàng thất bại trong trading v́ hiểu biết chẳng tới đâu cái khoa học và nghệ thuật của trading rồi quay ra vịn vào cái kiến thức nhỏ như con kiến của ḿnh về FA để ḷe thiên hạ v́ nghỉ rằng chẳng ai biết nhiều v́ nó quá phức tạp. TA th́ không thể nói ẩu được v́ sai hay đúng là thấy ngay v́ vậy nên hay dùng FA để dựa vào đó mà nổ sản. Hôm nay tui buộc ḷng phải chỉ trích để tránh bớt t́nh trạng nổ bậy rất tai hại nầy. Nhân tiện Phoenix hỏi tui về FA nên tui đưa ra đây một đoạn về FA mà tui đă làm để lại cho gia đ́nh. Nên nhớ đây chỉ là con đường phải đi để phân tích fundamental của 1 công ty riêng rẽ mà thôi, đừng nói đến chuyện như gold hay curency nó có tính cách global toàn thế giới. Hăy đọc rồi suy ngẩm thử cá nhân của ḿnh thấy có đủ sức để làm một FA thật sự hay không?. Sơ lược FA là gồm những bước như thế nầy :1-Sales growth : Sales Growth Ratio/Rate is a measure of the percentage increase in sales between the two time periods.Formula:
Sales Growth Rate = (Current month's sales - Last month's sales) / (Last month's sales) * 100
Or,
Sales Growth Rate = (Current Year's sales - Last Year's sales) / (Last Year's sales) * 100
Example 1:
Sales in 2008 = $700,000
Sales in 2009 = $900,000
Sales Growth Rate = (900,000 - 700,000) / 700,000 * 100 = 28.57%
Example 2:
Company A: Sales in November $50,000; in December $60,000
Company B: Sales in November $30,000; in December $50,000
Then, the Sales Growth Rate for:
Company A = (Sales of current period – Sales of previous period) / Sales of previous period = (60,000 - 50,000) / 50,000 * 100% = 20%
Company B = (50,000 - 30,000) / 30,000 * 100% = 66.67%
Based on the above calculation, Company B has outperformed Company A. Price to sales Ratio : Price to Sales Ratio (PSR or P/S ratio) is calculated by dividing the company's market cap by the company's revenue; or, dividing the stock price per share by the revenue per share. It indicates how much investor paid for a share compared to the sales generated (per share) by the company. A lower ratio is considered a better investment as the investor is paying less for each unit of sales.
Formula:
Price to sales ratio = Market price per share / Sales per share
Or,
PSR = Market Capitalization / Total sales
Example 1:
If a company has a market cap of $20 million and revenue of $10 million. Then, the P/S ratio = 20 million / 10 million = 2
Example 2:
A corporation with sales per share of $35 and a share price of $105 would have a P/S ratio of 3 (Calculation: 105 / 35 = 3). This means that investors pay $3 for every dollar of sales that the corporation generates.
Example 3:
Company A has sales of $20 billion and the stock has a total market capitalization of $18 billion, then the Price to sales ratio for this company is: 18 billion / 20 billion = 0.9
Sales to Capital Employed Ratio : Sales to Capital Employed Ratio is used to measure the firm's ability to generate sales revenue by utilizing its assets. A higher ratio is preferable to lower one (retail companies such as supermarkets tend to have higher ratios).
Formula:
Sales to Capital Employed Ratio = (Sales / Capital Employed ) * 100%
Example:
A company has the following data:
Land and buildings $500,000
Motor vehicles $40,000
Equipment $10,000
Stock $22,000
Debtors $31,000
Creditors $43,000
Bank $9,000
Total sales $145,000
Sales returns $750
Prepaid Rent $8,000
Then,
Total assets = Fixed assets + Current assets = (500,000 + 40,000 + 10,000) + (22,000 + 31,000 + 9,000 + 8,000) = $620,000
Capital Employed = Total assets - Current liabilities = 620,000 - 43,000 = $577,000
Net Sales = Total sales - Sales returns = 145,000 - 750 = $144,250
Sales to Capital Employed Ratio = (144,250 / 577,000) * 100% = 25%
2-Profit margins :
- +Profit margins are the portion of a company's sales that end up as earnings. As an investor, look for companies that generate an increasing percentage of profit out of every dollar of sales. The larger the margin, the better a company is at managing and leveraging its business. Let's take one company that earned $10 million from $100 million in sales. This gives it a profit margin of 10%.
- +The best small and midcap stocks after-tax profit margins, on average, of 10% . For big-capitalization stocks, the margins were 13%. Profit margins can be a major clue in finding the best stocks to buy, although the numbers vary widely among industries.
- +There are two types of profit margins. Pretax profit margin and after-tax margin. The rule of thumb seek companies with annual pretax profit margins of at least 18%. Rising profit margins mean little if sales are dropping. But, if margins start trending lower, it could indicate the company is losing ground to competition.
3-Return On Equity: ROE, sometimes called earnings power, indicates how well a company is being managed to allow a profit on its shareholder's money. It is also a reliable indicator of what a company can earn in the future. High ROEs, year after year, tend to reflect increasing profitability and superior management. You should generally avoid companies with less than 17% return on equity.
Return on Asset (ROA): Return on Assets (ROA) ratio is used to measure the amount of profit a company made for each $1 of assets owned. It is also known as Return on Total Assets (ROTA).
Formula:
Return on Assets = Net Income / Average Total Assets
Or,
ROA = Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover
Example 1:
Company A has $40,000 of net income after tax for the year ended 31 December 2010. During the same period its total assets averaged $2,000,000. Then, the Return on Assets ratio = 40,000 / 2,000,000 = 2%
Example 2:
Calculate the ROTA, given the following data:
Net profit $68,000
Total sales $220,00
Sales returns $20,000
Total assets (31 Dec 2009): $160,000
Total assets (31 Dec 2010): $100,000
Solution:
Net Sales = 220,000 - 20,000 = $200,000
Net Profit Margin = (Net profit / Net sales) * 100% = (68,000 / 200,000) * 100% = 34% (or 0.34)
Average Total Assets = (160,000 + 100,000) / 2 = $130,000
Assets Turnover Ratio = Net Sales / Average Total Assets = 200,000 / 130,000 = 1.54
ROTA = Net Profit Margin * Asset Turnover = 0.34 * 1.54 = 0.5236 (or 52.36%)
4-Earnings and earning growth: Companies report their earnings in two ways: a bottom-line total and a per-share amount. The per-share figure is calculated by dividing the total earnings by the number of shares outstanding. Example: XYZ Corp., with 45 million shares, reports earnings of $35.8 million, or 80 cents a share. The per-share amount is most relevant for investors.
- * Quarterly earnings-per-share growth of at least 25% over the same quarter the year before.
- * Preferably, accelerating earnings in the three most recent quarters.
- * Annual earnings-per-share gains of at least 25% over the past three years.
- *The P-E ratio is a comparison of the stock's price to its annual earnings per share. For example, a stock quoted at $50 a share with annual earnings of $5 per share has a P-E ratio of 10. In other words, the stock is selling at 10 times its annual earnings. Conventional wisdom says stocks with higher P-E ratios are overpriced and should be avoided. But the truth is that the best stocks often have high — some would say ridiculous — P-E ratios when they start their big climbs. And they continue having high P-Es throughout their advances. Studies prove the percentage gain in earnings per share over the year-earlier period had a greater impact on a stock's price.
5-Cash flow: Operating cash flow -- which is comprised of net earnings minus preferred dividends plus depreciation -- is arguably the best measure of a business’s profits. A company can show positive net earnings and still not be able to pay its debts. Calculate the firm’s cash flow per share of stock. (Divide its annual free cash flow, from the cash flow statement, by the total number of common shares outstanding, from the balance sheet). This will help you understand how a potential acquirer might value the company. Firms with large cash flows are often attractive takeover targets, since part of the acquisition can be paid for with the acquired firm’s own cash. Debt to Asset Ratio : Debt to Asset Ratio is calculated by dividing the firm’s total liabilities by its total assets. It indicates the percentage of a firm's assets that are financed via debt.
Formula:
Debt to Asset Ratio = Total Debt / Total Assets
(Note: total debt is the sum of long-term liabilities and current liabilities)
Example 1:
A company A has $400,000 in assets, $80,000 in liabilities, and $40,000 in stockholders’ equity. Then, the debt to total assets ratio would be: 80,000 / 400,000 = 0.2. This means that 20% of the corporation’s assets are financed by the creditors and 80% is financed by the owners.
Example 2:
Company B has the following data:
Goodwill $60,000
Buildings $900,000
Office Equipment $100,000
Loan $500,000
Creditors $40,000
Bank Overdraft $10,000
Stock $55,000
Debtors $25,000
Cash $15,000
Then,
Total Debts = 500,000 + 40,000 + 10,000 = $550,000
Total Assets = Fixed assets + Current assets = (60,000 + 900,000 + 100,000) + (55,000 + 25,000 + 15,000) = $1,155,000
Debt to Asset Ratio = 550,000 / 1,155,000 = 0.48 (or 48%)
6-Capital Gearing Ratio : Capital Gearing Ratio is used to analyze the capital structure of a firm. It indicates the relationship between various types of securities and capitalization such as debentures, preference share, reserves, etc. High geared means lower proportion of equity, while low geared means higher proportion of equity.
Formula:
Capital Gearing Ratio = Equity / Fixed Interest Bearing Funds
(Note: Fixed interest bearing funds include debentures, preference shares and long-term loans; Equity includes Equity share capital, Free reserves, and Profits and loss account balance)
Or,
Capital gearing ratio = Prior charge capital / Total capital
(Note: Prior charge capital is capital carrying right to fixed return; Total capital is 'total assets less current liabilities')
Or,
Capital gearing ratio = (Preference share capital + Debentures + long term borrowings) / Equity funds
Example:
A company has the following information:
Equity Share Capital $500,000
Long Term Loans $650,000
Reserves and surplus $400,000
10% Debentures $150,000
Then, Capital Gearing Ratio = (500,000 + 400,000) / (650,000 + 150,000) = 9 : 8
7-Proprietary Ratio : Proprietary Ratio (also known as Equity Ratio or the Net Worth to Total Assets Ratio) is the proportion of shareholders' funds to total assets. A high ratio will indicate that the firm has sufficient amount of equity to support the functions of the business.
Formula:
Proprietary Ratio = Shareholders funds / Total Assets
Or,
Proprietary Ratio = Shareholders' equity / Total tangible assets
(Note: Shareholder's funds include equity share capital and all reserves)
Example 1:
Company A has total shareholders funds of $2,200,000 and the total assets are $2,750,000. Then:
Equity Ratio = 2,200,000 / 2,750,000 = 0.8
This means that shareholders contribute 80 cents for every $1 employed in the business, with creditors contributing the remaining 20 cents.
Example 2:
Company B has shareholders' equity of $900,000 and total assets of $1,200,000 (including goodwill $200,000). Then:
Total tangible assets = 1,200,000 - 200,000 = $1,000,000
Proprietary ratio = 900,000 / 1,000,000 = 0.98-Financial Leverage Ratio :Financial Leverage Ratio (also called long-term solvency ratio) is used to measure the firm's ability to repay its long-term debts. It gives an indication of the long-term solvency of the firm.
Formula:
1) Debt to Equity = Total Debt / Total Equity
2) Total Debts to Assets = Total Liabilities / Total Assets
3) Interest Coverage Ratio = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Interest Charges
4) Debt service coverage ratio = Net Operating Income / Total Debt Service
5) Capitalization Ratio = Long-term Debt / (Long-term debt + Shareholder equity)
Learn how to calculate financial leverage ratio with the following examples:
Example 1:
Company A has total liabilities of $700,000 and total stockholders' equity of $380,000, then the debt/capital ratio is: 700,000 / (700,000 + 380,000) = 700,000 / 1,080,000 = 0.6481 = 64.81%
Example 2:
Company B is looking at an investment property with a net operating income of $87,000 and an annual debt service of $58,000. The debt service coverage ratio for this property = 87,000 / 58,000 = 1.5
Example 3:
Company C has total sales revenue of $99,000 for the year. It has cost sales $9,000 and operating expenses of $5,000. The company's interest expense for the year is $25,000.
Then,
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes = Sales – Cost of sales – Operating expenses
EBIT = $99,000 - $9,000 - $5,000
EBIT = $85,000
Interest Coverage Ratio = $85,000/$25,000 = 3.4 times
Example 4:
Company D has the following information:
Creditors $2,000
Loan $38,000
Buildings $60,500
Debtors $7,000
Bank $5,000
Stocks $4,500
Then, the Total Liabilities = 2,000 + 38,000 = $40,000
Total Assets = 60,500 + 7,000 + 5,000 + 4,500 = $77,000
Total Debts to Assets = 40,000 / 77,000 = 0.5199-Efficiency Ratio : Efficiency Ratios (also known as Activity ratios) are used to measure the effectiveness of the firm's use of resources.Formula:
1) Average Collection Period = (Average Trade Debtors / Credit Sales) * No. of Days
2) Average Payment Period = (Average Trade Creditors / Credit Purchases) * No. of Days
3) Inventory Turnover Ratio = Cost of goods sold / Average inventory held
4) Debtors Turnover Ratio = Net Credit Sales / Average Trade Debtors
5) Total Assets Turnover = Net Sales / Total Assets
6) Degree of Operating Leverage = % change in EBIT / % change in Sales
7) Creditors Turnover Ratio = Net Credit Purchases / Average Payable
8) Days Sales Outstanding Ratio = Accounts Receivable / Average sales per day
9) Working capital turnover Ratio = Cost of sales / Average net working capital
10) Current Asset Turnover Ratio = Cost of goods sold / Current assets
11) Stock Turnover Period = (Average stock / Cost of goods sold) * No. of Days
12) Cash Cycle = Stock Turnover Period + Average Collection Period - Average Payment Period
Example:
A company has the following information:
Trade debtors $100,000
Trade creditors $80,000
Credit sales $300,000
Credit purchases $120,00
Cost of sales $70,000
Opening stock $60,000
Closing stock $20,000
Bank $66,000
Calculate the relevant Efficiency Ratios.
Solution:
Average Collection Period = (100,000 / 300,000) * 365 = 121.7 days
Average Payment Period = (80,000 / 120,000) * 365 = 243.3 days
Current Asset Turnover = 70,000 / (100,000 + 20,000 + 66,000) = 0.38
Average stock = (60,000 + 20,000) / 2 = $40,000
Stock Turnover Period = (40,000 / 70,000) * 365 = 208.6 days
Cash Cycle = 208.6 + 121.7 - 243.3 = 87 days10-Investment Ratio :List of investment ratios and formulas:
1) Dividend cover = Profit after tax / dividends
2) Dividend yield = ( Dividend per share/ Market price per share ) * 100 %
3) Earnings per share (EPS) = Profit available to equity shareholders / Number of equity shares
4) Price earnings ratio (P/E) = Market price per share / Earnings per share
5) Price to sales ratio = Market price per share / Sales per share
6) Price earnings growth (PEG) ratio = Price per earnings / Annual EPS growth
7) Price to book value (PBV) = Market price per share / Balance sheet price per share
8) Payout Ratio = Dividend per share / EPS
Examples:
1) Company A made a net profit of $80,000 that is available to ordinary shareholders, and the dividend declared is $20,000, then:
Dividend cover = 80,000 / 20,000 = 4 times
2) An investor bought a share at $6.00 and he received a dividend of $0.30 on it, then:
Dividend yield = (0.30 / 6.00) * 100 % = 5 %
3) Company ABC has an annual earning of $140,000 dollars. Total dividends of $70,000 are to be paid out, and the company has 350,000 outstanding shares.
Solution:
Earnings per share (EPS) = $140,000 / 350,000 = $0.40
Dividend per share = 70,000 / 350,000 = $0.20
The dividend payout ratio = 0.20 / 0.40 = 50%
4) A company has ordinary share capital of 200,000 shares at $1 each. It made a net profit of $400,000 that is available to the ordinary shareholders. The market price of a share is $6.00.
Then:
EPS = $400,000 / 200,000 = $2 per share
P/E ratio = $6 / $2 = 311-Liquidity Ratio : Liquidity ratios provide a general estimate of solvency of a company.List of common liquidity ratios and formulas:
1) Current ratio (also known as working capital ratio)
= Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2) Quick ratio, in times (also known as acid test ratio or quick assets ratio)
= (Current Assets - Stock) / Current Liabilities
3) Interest Coverage = Profit Before Tax / Interest Charge
4) Gearing ratio = Long Term Liabilities / Equity Shareholders' Funds
5) Cash Ratio = Cash / Current Liabilities
6) Operating Cash Flow Ratio = Operating Cash Flow / Current Liabilities
Example:
Calculate the working capital, acid test and gearing ratios, given the following figures:
Debtors: $2,000
Creditors: $5,000
Bank: $11,000
Cash: $1,000
Closing stock: $6,000
Opening stock: $7,000
Total Capital and Reserves: $25,000
Long term loan: $15,000
Solution:
Current assets = debtors + bank + cash + closing stock = 2000 + 11000 + 1000 + 6000 = $20,000
Working capital ratio = 20,000 / 5,000 = 4 (This means that current assets are 4 times current liabilities)
Acid test ratio = (20,000 - 6,000) / 5,000 = 2.8 (This means that current assets in liquid form are 2.8 times current liabilities)
Equity Shareholders' Funds = Total Capital and Reserves + Long term Liabilities = 25000 + 15000 = $40,000
Gearing ratio = 15,000 / 40,000 = 0.37512-Profittability Ratio : List of profitability ratios and formulas:1) Gross Profit ratio = (Gross profit / Net sales) * 100 %
2) Net Profit ratio = (Net profit / Net sales) * 100 %
3) Operating profit margin = Operating income / Net sales
4) Return on Capital Employed = (Profit before interest / Capital employed) * 100 %
5) Return on Equity (ROE) = Net income / Average shareholders equity
6) Return on Assets (ROA) = Net income / Total assets
7) Cash flow return on investment (CFROI) = Cash flow / Market recapitalisation
8) Risk adjusted return on capital (RAROC) = Expected return / Economic capital
9) Return on net assets = Net income / Net assets
Example:
Calculate the profitability ratios, given the following figures:
Stock at the start of the year: $10,000
Stock at the end of the year: $6,000
Sales: $18,000
Sales returns: $3,000
Purchases: $2,000
Overhead expenses: $3,000
Capital at start of year: $17,000
Capital at end of year: $15,000
Solution:
Net sales = $18,000 - $3,000 = $15,000
Cost of sales = Stock at start + purchases - Stock at end = 10,000 + 2,000 - 6,000 = $6,000
Gross profit = Net sales - Cost of sales = $15,000 - $6,000 = $11,000
Gross profit ratio = (11,000 / 15,000 ) * 100% = 73.33 %
Net profit = Gross profit - overhead expenses = 11,000 - 3,000 = $8,000
Net profit ratio = (8,000 / 15,000 ) * 100% = 53.33 %
Average capital employed = 1/2 (Capital at start + Capital at end) = 1/2 (17,000+15,000) = $16,000
ROCE = (8,000 / 16,000) * 100% = 50%
13-Institutional sponsorship : These are the mutual funds, pension funds, banks and other financial institutions that do the bulk of stock trading on any given day. It is estimated institutions account for about 70% of all trading activity. So when institutions target a stock for purchase, it's more likely to go up in price thanks to the increased demand they create. This professional stock buying is called institutional sponsorship.
- * Institutional investors represent the bulk of trading activity in the market. As such, their buying and selling power can move a stock's price up or down dramatically.
- * You can learn to spot which stocks institutions are buying and selling by watching for surges in trading volume and the Accumulation/Distribution Rating.
- * Look for stocks with an increasing total number of institutional owners in recent quarters.
Finally establish a Watch List for selected stocks and try to remember your intended traded stock (where it is now, where its nearest Resistance and Support, where pattern it is now...). So you can react quickly when opportunity comes .
Last edited by Pleiku; 11-01-2012 at 10:51 AM.
Hay! TT vỗ tay khen bác Pleiku "anh tài" đây.Ông Warren Buffett phải "phân tích" như bác "phân tích" vậy đó th́ mới gọi anh tài phỏng bác? C̣n không th́ là "cóc ngồi đáy giếng" hết á? Ok,nh́n là biết rồi. Để TT chờ xem bác Pleiku dạy người ta chừng nào người ta giàu đây,em chóng mắt lên xem này.:)
Bây giờ TT xin dẫn chứng với các bạn một công ty có đủ 5 tiêu chuẩn mà ông Warren Buffett đề ra:
Các bạn đừng bận tâm đến cái đường tô vàng,đó chẳng qua là mũi tên con mouse chạm vào lúc TT chụp lại h́nh bằng Snagit.:p
Lúc TT mua cũng là lúc có một số bạn khác cũng mua vô,đó là những contrarian như một số bạn ở đây. Khủng hoảng 2009 làm người ta "hoảng" thật,nhưng cũng có một số người đi theo cách mà ông Warren Buffett đi ("to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful") mà các bạn ở VN cũng biết với câu nói được phiên dịch sang Việt ngữ quen thuộc.
TT cũng như các bạn cũng muốn nhưng không thể "mua đáy bán đỉnh" một cách chính xác được có đúng không nào? V́ vậy giá $0.43 TT mua là kể ra c̣n "hơi đăt" so với đáy của TT lúc đó,cũng như TT đă bán "rẻ" nó lúc nó c̣n xa lắm mới đến được "đỉnh"! Hi hi...Nhưng mà sao,miễn là happy th́ OK rồi!:)
Các cổ phiếu tốt khác mà TT từng own đúng như cách mà ông Warren Buffett dạy,bao gồm có TLS,CSR...Hầu hết,ngoài capital gain ra họ đều trả cho cổ tức(tiền mặt) một cách đều đặn (đặc biệt,TLS đă trả cổ tức có lúc cao hơn fixed-term deposit nhiều,do ngươi mua mua được giá rẻ trong khi giá trị cổ tức suốt quăng thời gian ấy không đổi) nên tính ra là những cuộc đầu tư rất mỹ măn là vậy đó.
Trong khi có những người cố công t́m cái mà họ không thể nào đạt được th́ ông Warren Buffett có nói: "We don't have to be smarter than the rest;we have to be more disciplined than the rest".
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